Seminários de História - Estudos Pós-graduados do ICS:
The Origins of Modern Growth: Fertility and Human Capital in England, 1500-1914
Lisboa, ICS, Quarta-feira, 11 de Novembro de 2009, 17:30, Sala de Aulas 3 (piso 0)
Por Gregory Clarck (Univerdidade da Califórnia - Davis),
especialista em questões relacionadas com o crescimento económico na longa duração e autor de A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World (Princeton University Press, 2007).
Recent theories of the origins of modern growth stress an improvement in human capital through reduced fertility and more intensive investment in the nurturing and education of children. But it is hard to directly test the proposition that reducing family sizes improves the "quality" of children in the modern world. What tests have been done have produced few positive signs of an association. Using the information from the wills of a large collection of fathers and sons in England 1500-1914, and the unusual nature of the demographic regime in place for most of this period, we are able to measure directly the connection between numbers of surviving children and the economic fortunes of children. There is a tradeoff between quality and quantity, but only before the Industrial Revolution. After 1800 larger family sizes have little influence on the fortunes of sons. Fertility declines cannot explain the emergence of modern growth.
ICS- Av. Prof. Aníbal Bettencourt, 9, 1600-189 Lisboa